The Observatory — live market simulation

Scenario

Change it — the market reacts live.

Category Promotion depth 20% off Cohort size 2,000

Live share · promoted SKU

rolling, last 600 decisions

Frozen pizzashelf of 5 · promoted highlighted

Simulated shoppers

grounded in real segment mix

—

initializing…

Will it make money?

honest range, not false precision

Volume lift—

Truly incremental—of the lift

Profit impact—

Adjust the promo to see the call.

◇ Calibration & accuracy

tested on sales it never saw (held-out)

Raw sim

off · share −0.35

Calibrated

recovers +0.44

Real sales

truth

Held-out correlation to realR²=0.64

This is the part no one else shows: we publish how close the simulation lands to real outcomes — and where it doesn't. Believable ≠ accurate; calibration is the difference.

Illustrative live demo on a public supermarket dataset (Nevo / dunnhumby-style). The swarm runs a real client-side choice model; figures move with your inputs to show the mechanic. Production runs on a client's own transactions with held-out validation. — Simulate before you spend, and prove it against reality.